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It doesn't really matter what kind of punishment you have. Some people will continue to break rules/laws no matter how they are punished. 200 years ago, prisons were no joke, yet people still broke the law, and I promise you there were still repeat offenders. Sure the prison population has grown a lot, but has it really? You have to account for the population increase as well as stupid laws putting people in jail for things they shouldn't be in jail for (like smoking pot). I haven't done any research into this at all, but I'm betting that when accounting for the population increase, people in jail for serious crimes such as murder or rape has probably stayed around the same, and if it has increased, I'd also be willing to say that it has to do with more people getting caught thanks to advances in technology; not that there is a larger % of people committing the crimes.
I'm in a thoughtful mood tonight.